Poultry International - June 2018 - 19
PoultryInternational ❙ 19
poultry meat each year, with Mexico
absorbing 20 percent and Canada
a further 5 percent. Any changes
to U.S. poultry exports to these
markets could affect the industry
outlook and indirectly affect global
Rising prices may be ahead,
however, for local producers and
exporters who sell in the EU and
Saudi Arabia as imports are restricted, while whole bird and breast
meat prices on global markets will
Avian influenza impact to
Pressure from avian influenza
remains significant, but the number
While in some markets, and for some product types, prices can be expected to
of cases is lower than in the 2016-17
increase, for others excess supply could lead to prices falling. buhanovskiy I Fotolia.com
Northern Hemisphere winter season.
Although China, Japan, the EU, India, Russia and the
there will be no alternative supplier who can replace
Middle East have recorded outbreaks, the number of cases
Brazil and the EU once new halal standards are impleso far this year has been lower and, should this continue,
the result will be fewer disruptions to global trade in
The weakest-performing countries this year are
broiler meat, as well as to trade in breeding stock.
expected to be Brazil, Thailand and Russia. Thailand
China has seen a remarkable recovery from avian inand Russia have over-expanded production, resulting in
fluenza, with one of the most profitable winter seasons in
oversupply in their home markets. While both countries
years for the industry, due to avian influenza vaccination.
are reporting rising exports, this will not be enough to
compensate for weak local demand.
Local industries will perform well
South Africa and Mexico in particular are performing well, as are Indonesia, India, Japan and the U.S. The
EU is also performing relatively well, notes Rabobank,
and breast meat prices are likely to rise due to restrictions on Brazilian product.
Russia and Thailand, however, are suffering from
oversupply after expansion, and will be looking to capture some of Brazil's lost market share.
The EU industry will benefit from rising
breast meat prices, and prices in Saudi Arabia
are expected to rise sharply. The country has
a self-sufficiency rate of only 45 percent, and
June 2018 ❙ www.WATTAgNet.com
Feed price concerns
Beyond global trade volatility, however, increasing
feed prices are a significant concern. Droughts in the
Southern Hemisphere have resulted in rising prices.
Most of the negative impact should be offset by high
global stock levels, but any worsening of the outlook
could affect future feed prices. ■
New poultry market data available to download: